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Iran war updates: Trump says no 'rush' to finalize peace deal
Trump walked back his Saturday 'largely negotiated' claim, telling reporters Sunday that key details are unresolved and he sees no urgency on a May 31 deadline.
Iran deal collapses 16.5pp — Trump says "no rush"
Trump's Sunday walkback from Saturday's "largely negotiated" claim sent the May 31 Iran peace deal contract from 52% to 35.5% — a 16.5pp single-session drop, the sharpest this contract has logged — while the ceasefire cascade rose on every date, putting Polymarket into "extended truce, no signature" pricing. Also: the June 7 new-agreement contract dropped 16pp to 71%; Hormuz June 30 fell 6.5pp to 52.5%; Texas Paxton-Cornyn runoff resolves today with a 3pp polling gap beneath 96% market odds; and the CME-Polymarket rate-hike divergence holds at a record 33pp ahead of Monday's CME update and Wednesday's April PCE print.
Coverage: May 24 ~14:43 UTC → May 25 ~22:00 UTC
The May 31 peace deal contract opened this cycle at 52% and spent Sunday in freefall, ending at 35.5% after Trump walked back Saturday's "largely negotiated" statement and told reporters there's "no rush" to finalize an agreement. Iran piled on via NBC News, saying no deal is imminent despite ongoing talks. The net move: −16.5 percentage points, the largest single-session drop the contract has recorded. What makes it stranger is that the ceasefire cascade did the opposite — every daily expiry improved. Polymarket is now pricing a scenario where the shooting stays stopped but the signed document stays unsigned.
This cycle at a glance
| Market | Current | 24h change | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran peace deal — May 31 | 35.5% | −16.5pp | $3.26M |
| US-Iran peace deal — May 26 | 12.5% | heavy selling | $4.80M |
| New Iran agreement by Jun 7 | 71% | −16pp | $1.96M |
| Iran ceasefire — May 25 | 99.45% | +5.45pp | $818K |
| Iran ceasefire — May 31 | 93.5% | +4.5pp | — |
| Hormuz normal by Jun 30 | 52.5% | −6.5pp | $357K |
| US-Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31 | 15% | sharp decline | — |
| Texas GOP runoff: Paxton wins | 96% | flat | $16.7M total |
| Fed zero cuts in 2026 | 65% | flat (checkpoint) | — |
| Polymarket hike in 2026 | 37% | flat (checkpoint) | — |
Iran: deal clock resets, ceasefire holds
Saturday's headline — Trump calling the deal "largely negotiated" — had already been absorbed by the market at 52% after the $3.05M NO whale position (wallets EB9999 and aekghas) capped the rally from a 70% intraday peak. Sunday added a second leg down. 1
Trump said he sees no urgency and that key details remain unresolved. Iranian officials, speaking through NBC News, said "no deal is imminent despite progress in talks." 2 The NYT separately reported that Trump's pressure on Iran's position on core conditions has had limited effect. Netanyahu, meanwhile, has been lobbying Trump not to bundle a Lebanon ceasefire into any Iran framework.
The May 26 deadline contract — a one-day binary that was already pricing imminent failure — spiked to $4.80M in 24h volume, or 31% of that market's entire trading history. 3 That kind of terminal-window volume is traders closing YES positions and loading NO into an expiry they expect to resolve against the deal side.
The June 7 "new agreement" contract dropped 16pp from 87% to 71%, confirming the weekend failure of both the May 25 and May 26 deadlines. 4 The diplomatic meeting calendar tells the same story: a US-Iran meeting before May 31 is priced at just 15%, with the earliest plausible window now sitting at June 3–7 (25.5%–36.5%). 5
The far end of the curve barely moved. July 31 ticked up 0.5pp to 71.5%; December 31 ticked up 0.5pp to 83.5%. 3 The market is not pricing a breakdown in negotiations — it's pricing a delay.
What drove the divergence: the ceasefire cascade improved across every date while the deal probability fell. May 25 resolved YES at 99.95%; May 25 current stands at 99.45% (+5.45pp from the 94% checkpoint); May 31 is at 93.5% (+4.5pp). 6 The guns are quiet. The lawyers are arguing.
The Hormuz June 30 contract dropped 6.5pp to 52.5%. The May 31 Hormuz market is effectively dead at 3.35%. 7 ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, the UAE's state energy firm) previously warned that full traffic restoration requires until Q1/Q2 2027, and Sunday's diplomatic setback gives the market another reason to doubt the June 30 window.
Tradeable expressions:
- May 31 NO at 64.5¢: The deal requires an MOU with explicit "permanent or lasting end to hostilities" language. Trump's own language has now shifted twice in 48 hours. The 35.5% YES price still implies roughly 1-in-3 odds of a signed document in six days, which seems generous given the diplomatic meeting calendar (only 15% odds of even a meeting before May 31). The $3.05M NO whale camp's record on Iran markets — EB9999 and aekghas are a combined 10-0 across prior Iran resolution events — supports the short side.
- Jun 7 new agreement YES at 71¢: If you believe a deal comes in the June 3–15 window rather than before May 31, this contract captures that view without the tight deadline risk. At 71¢ you're paying for what the market treats as a base-case outcome — the risk is another Trump reversal or a hardline Iranian response narrowing the June window further.
- Ceasefire cascade daily YES: With May 25 at 99.45% and the cascade holding through May 31 at 93.5%, the short-fuse dailies are essentially carry trades unless military action restarts. The war-risk indicator (Iran closes airspace by May 27) is at only 5.95%.
Insider-trading caveat: The House Oversight Committee (Chair James Comer) opened a formal probe into prediction-market insider trading on May 22. Documents are due June 5; summer hearings are possible. The Iran market cluster — with 80+ trades showing apparent advance knowledge, as documented by the New York Times — sits at the center of the investigation. Position sizing in any Iran contract should reflect the possibility that counterparties have non-public information on the deal timeline. 1
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Texas runoff: election day arrives with a 3pp gap underneath
The Polymarket checkpoint has Ken Paxton (Texas AG, Trump-endorsed) at 96% against incumbent Senator John Cornyn, with total market volume at $16.7M. 8 Votes are being cast today, May 26.
The University of Houston's final pre-election poll tells a different story: Paxton 48%, Cornyn 45% — a 3-point gap that sits inside the poll's margin of error. 8 Early voting closed May 24 with roughly 600,000 Republican ballots cast, less than half the turnout from March's primary. 9 Trump formally backed Paxton about six days ago; Dallas News reported that the endorsement "transformed" the race's final stretch. 10 Combined ad spending across both campaigns has exceeded $135 million.
The tension between 96% prediction-market odds and a 3pp polling gap comes down to one variable: turnout composition. Low-propensity runoff voters who showed up specifically because of the Trump endorsement favor Paxton; Cornyn's coalition — Senate establishment donors, suburban Republicans skeptical of Paxton's legal record — typically turns out more reliably in low-excitement runoffs. The winner faces Democrat James Talarico in November.
Tradeable expressions:
- Cornyn YES at ~4¢: This is a high-convexity tail bet. The prediction market is pricing Cornyn's chances as a near-impossibility, but the UH poll and turnout dynamics give him a live path. Low-turnout runoffs produce outlier results more often than high-turnout primaries. If you have a strong view on Trump's endorsement effectiveness with irregular voters in a June runoff, 4¢ offers meaningful upside on a result the market has mostly discarded.
- No clear edge on Paxton YES at 96¢: At this price, you're locking $0.04 of upside against a tail risk the poll says is real. Skip unless you're closing a hedge.
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Fed and rates: checkpoint data, catalysts ahead
Fed data did not update during this cycle — CME FedWatch runs on weekdays only, and the platform API that feeds Polymarket's real-time contract prices was unavailable Sunday. The checkpoint baselines remain the operative data:
- June FOMC hold: 97% probability (meeting is June 16–17, Kevin Warsh's first as Fed Chair) 11
- Zero cuts in 2026: 65% (+8pp from the prior cycle) 11
- Polymarket hike in 2026: 37% vs. CME FedWatch 70.2% — a 33pp gap that is the widest recorded this cycle 12
The CME number is stale — it reflects Friday May 22 options flow and won't update until Monday's open. April PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) prints Wednesday May 28. The last UMich consumer sentiment reading was 44.8, a 74-year low. April FOMC minutes showed an 8-4 vote with dovish dissents.
The 33pp CME-Polymarket divergence merits watching on Monday. If CME reprices toward 37% after the weekend, it's a signal that institutional money is beginning to share Polymarket's more dovish read. If it stays near 70%, the gap widens further and the two markets are telling genuinely different stories about where rates go in 2026.
Tradeable expressions:
- Long Polymarket "Fed hike in 2026" at 37¢: Mean-reversion trade on the 33pp gap — CME at 70.2% is hard to ignore if you trust institutional options flow. The May 28 PCE print is the next hard catalyst: a hot core reading pushes Polymarket hike odds sharply higher and would vindicate the CME side of the gap.
- Watch June FOMC hold at 97%: This contract has been static. If Warsh signals a hawkish surprise before the June 17 meeting, a fast move from 97% toward 85–90% has asymmetric payoff. The 3% NO position is cheap insurance if you're long duration.
Markets to watch — upcoming catalysts
| Date | Event | Current odds | Signal to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 26 (today) | Texas GOP runoff results | Paxton 96%, Cornyn 4% | Exit poll data vs. low-turnout models |
| May 26 (Mon) | CME FedWatch update | Hike 70.2% (stale) | Convergence or further gap vs. Polymarket 37% |
| May 28 | April PCE inflation release | — | Hot print → Polymarket hike odds move up |
| May 31 | Iran peace deal deadline | 35.5% | Any Trump/Iran official statement over the week |
| May 31 | Ceasefire — May 31 | 93.5% | Military incidents or diplomatic announcements |
| May 31 | Hormuz normalization — May 31 | 3.35% (dead) | No trade; Jun 30 at 52.5% is the live market |
| Jun 3–7 | Iran diplomatic meeting window | 25.5–36.5% | Whether talks resume after Sunday setback |
| Jun 5 | Comer probe documents due | — | Extent of subpoenas; names of accounts under review |
| Jun 7 | New Iran agreement deadline | 71% | Any announced framework or MOU language |
| Jun 16–17 | FOMC meeting (Warsh chairs) | 97% hold | Pre-meeting Fed speak from Warsh or governors |
The dominant trade setup for the week: Iran contracts are back in price-discovery mode after Sunday's reversal. The 52% → 35.5% move was fast. The Jul 31 and Dec 31 contracts barely moved, which means the market still believes a deal happens — just not before May 31. Traders who missed the NO entry at 52% may get a second look at 64.5¢ if Monday brings more Trump backtracking. Conversely, any concrete step — a confirmed meeting date, an MOU term sheet, an Omani mediator announcement — would compress NO sharply.
Cover image: AI-generated illustration
参考来源
- 1The Tennessean: Iran war updates — Trump says no 'rush' to finalize peace deal
- 2Google News: Iran peace deal coverage, May 25
- 3Polymarket Gamma API: US x Iran permanent peace deal event data
- 4Polymarket Gamma API: US announces new Iran agreement event data
- 5Polymarket Gamma API: US x Iran diplomatic meeting event data
- 6Polymarket Gamma API: Iran ceasefire cascade event data
- 7Polymarket Gamma API: Hormuz end of June event data
- 8Polymarket: Texas Republican Senate Runoff
- 9Tyler Morning Telegraph: Early voting reveals divided turnout map
- 10Dallas News: Final stretch transformed by Trump endorsement
- 11DeFi Rate: Fed Decision Odds — prediction markets
- 12CME Group: CME FedWatch Tool
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