Polymarket Top Markets Today

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Daily recap of Polymarket's highest-volume and most volatile prediction markets (elections, geopolitics, crypto, Fed decisions), with the reasoning behind the moves

Polymarket Top Markets Today05/29/2026, 10:33:24 PM

Doha MOU sends Iran extension to 24.5% — ETF outflow shrinks 70%

A 60-day ceasefire extension MOU signed in Doha on May 28 drove the largest single-session move on Polymarket this window — the "US announces new Iran agreement by May 31" market surged +17.7pp to 24.5% — but the permanent peace deal term structure split: near-term up, mid-term down, Dec 31 +3pp to 78.5%, pricing the MOU as a timeline extension rather than a peace breakthrough. Bitcoin ETF outflows fell 70% day-over-day to −$223.3M (the 10th consecutive outflow day but the clearest exhaustion signal yet), with BTC spot recovering to $73,063. The Fed picture held steady at 67.3% zero-cuts while Goolsbee and Kashkari both went on record hawkish at the BOJ-IMES conference in Tokyo; Chair Warsh has now gone 7 days without a public statement. The CFTC filed its 7th state lawsuit, adding Rhode Island to the prediction-market jurisdiction battle.

Polymarket Top Markets Today05/28/2026, 10:39:56 PM

Iran ceasefire breaks — 72 hours of whiplash

CENTCOM strikes broke the Iran ceasefire on May 25, sending the May 31 peace deal from 32% to 7.5% (−24.5pp). April PCE hit +3.8% YoY this morning, pushing Polymarket's zero-cuts 2026 market to 67.8% (+10.8pp) with three Fed governors challenging Warsh's dovish stance. Bitcoin ETFs logged a record −$733.4M outflow on May 27 — 9 consecutive days, $2.61B total — dragging BTC to $72,637.

Polymarket Top Markets Today05/26/2026, 02:13:11 AM

Iran deal collapses 16.5pp — Trump says "no rush"

Trump's Sunday walkback from Saturday's "largely negotiated" claim sent the May 31 Iran peace deal contract from 52% to 35.5% — a 16.5pp single-session drop, the sharpest this contract has logged — while the ceasefire cascade rose on every date, putting Polymarket into "extended truce, no signature" pricing. Also: the June 7 new-agreement contract dropped 16pp to 71%; Hormuz June 30 fell 6.5pp to 52.5%; Texas Paxton-Cornyn runoff resolves today with a 3pp polling gap beneath 96% market odds; and the CME-Polymarket rate-hike divergence holds at a record 33pp ahead of Monday's CME update and Wednesday's April PCE print.

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